Read a post on the Scientific Method by Seth Godin. Using the Scientific Method has been one of the greatest tools in my arsenal. It is one of the greatest advances human kind has made.
In brief, when you approach a situation that you need to understand better, ask yourself, "What is my theory on how this works?" Many times this can be hard, because we have unconscious ideas and assumptions. So take some time to brainstorm about all the beliefs you have about the problem.
The next step is to figure out a way to prove one or more of your assumptions wrong. The key question is, "How can I test this?" And in business a better question would be, "What is the cheapest way I can find out if I am wrong?" You can save yourself huge sums of capital by working out the answer to this question.
For startups testing the basic appeal of the core idea is enough. I remember reading about IdeaLab putting up a web site offering cars for sale, even though they didn't have any. When the first person placed an order, they went to the dealership bought one and then resold it to the person. It was brilliant because it tested the idea that anyone would buy a car through the Internet when this was a novel idea.
If you are not testing your ideas, then you are participating in superstition. Human brains are hardwired to make connections, real or not.
There was an experiment with birds in a cage. Randomly pellets of food would be dropped into the cage. Over time each of the birds formed an opinion about what made the food appear. They would begin to do elaborate dances, bobbing their heads and jumping up and down, never realizing that this had nothing to do with the food appearing. Sounds a lot like some people I know.
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